Regime change for Belarus?

Bit of a Tabloid headline there but interesting things are occuring between Russia and Belarus as of late. The eastern bloc is regarded by Russia as an essential buffer zone for their security and an area of influence they have no desire to share. After the fall of the wall the USSR agreed to a re-unified Germany (a country that invaded them with devastating results during its' short existence from 1871 till 1945) under the proviso that their sphere of influence in eastern Europe was to remain uncontested. After the USSR fell and the US treasury destroyed the Russian economy with Friedmanite ideas suddenly the US didn't feel the need to honour the previous agreement although it wasn't till Bush II's "colour revolutions" in various countries in within the sphere (Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia etc) that matters came to a head.

Putin, who blindsided pretty much everyone, made rebuilding that sphere of influence a key aim, although of course he didn't announce this. With tremendous economic problems and potential disintegration of the Russian Federation to an extent this took a back seat although the issues were closely linked, Washington would have loved to see a weak and cowed Russian Federation or Balkanised Russia that meekly allowed them to extract as much money and resources as possible. Through the period of Putin having to focus more on Chechnya and reclaiming the Russian economy for Russia (and away from multinationals the US treasury got Yeltsin to grant absurdly preferential contracts to) the US was able to build up "popular sentiment" against Russia and use their vastly greater resources to bribe people in the region. Through this period however Belarus stuck by Russia solidly.

Relations seem to be souring and almost entirely at Russia's end. Drastically increasing the price Belarus pays for Natural Gas is the latest in a series of unpleasant measures Russia has enforced upon its stalwart ally / buffer. Now it could be the price of natural gas was kept artificially low for a number of years and now is bringing it up to a more realistic price but even then it suggests one thing. Russia doesn't feel the need to be quite so kind to Belarus as it did. US interference beaten back in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan and an embarrassing undermining of the US puppet in Georgia certainly seem like reasons for Russia to be more confident but feeling secure enough to undermine or even betray Belarus suggests Russia feels other things, things we're not privy to, are likely going well too. A foundering EU, an ally / tool of the US that was pushing consistently into the former Russian sphere of influence, even going so far as to suggest old all Serbia could join, is another reason for the Kremlin to feel more confident. This need not be sinister, a friendlier, less insane whitehouse may mean the Kremlin doesn't feel the need to retain a decrepit dictatorship as an ally. But Putin is a man who has consistently surprised the west and won a lot more for Russia than the cards he'd been dealt would've lead one to expect.

Interesting things are likely to be happening in eastern Europe over the next few years.