Israel likely to attack Iran within months.

I was halfway through writing this when I realised the real reason for Israel doing this, blackmailing China and the EU into opposing the Palestinian State with the threat of massively increased oil prices. I didn't want to delete the other stuff because it is valid but I'm putting this TL:DR here because this is the main point I think. Scroll down to the next bolded bit for my thoughts on this.

Former CIA agent Robert Baer, the inspiration for George Clooney's character in Syriana, has stated there is an extremely strong possibility Israel will attack Iran, probably in September. Given he cites a former head of Mossad that only stepped down in late 2010 I think we can take his warning seriously.

I am also inclined to believe Israel, who are now totally out of control, will attack against American's wishes. Politically and Militarily there is no will for the third middle eastern war.

The probable outcomes for the US are such an attack are devastating. If they do the sensible thing and don't rush to Israel's aid then Obama loses in 2012 for certain. More to the point though we see another example of the American Empire not looking after its' colonies. Sure Russia and the EU took notice that America wouldn't defend Georgia in 2008 but Georgia was small potatoes. Failure to defend Israel, the jewel in the crown means it is open season on the US, China, Russia and others can follow a much more aggressive foreign policy knowing the US simply can't back up its' colonies and client states.

If then they do the publicly popular and necessary thing and defend Israel things are unlikely to go much better. Iran has had years to see how American forces work in Iraq and will have tailored their asymmetric capabilities in response. Also any US navy vessels hanging around Iranian waters probably wont do so well either. But on top of these handicaps the US faces other problems.

The Arab Spring means that guarantees of fly over rights, security of supply lines and so on is vastly weakened. Also the great unpopularity of Israel will likely be a regionally galvanising force, US aligned client rulers across the region could face even greater problems in the event of an Israel and America vs Iran conflict.

Plus you know the massive war fatigue, an economy on life support and likelihood of the need for more troops at home as social conditions deteriorate further at home.

TL:DR bit
Of course as I write this I realise none of that will happen. Because I remember reading at least one article before where Israel threatened China that if they didn't do some such thing then Israel would attack Iran. Now China has no love for Iran, not really but they do need oil and they're heavily dependent on the Middle East for it. The disruption a war between Israel and Iran would cause would create huge problems for China, economically and socially. So China did what Israel wanted.

Now the UN vote on Palestinian Statehood approaches and several big EU countries are looking favourably at the motion. The EU is similarly reliant on Middle Eastern oil so in order to get Israel to reconsider this mindless jingoism they'll have to do whatever Israel wants. I don't know China's position on the issue but if they were looking favourably at it this will likely make them reconsider.

It may be Israel wants other concessions or issues resolved in this extortion operation but regardless of the objective I think this is why their stupidly dangerous plan is suddenly being aired.

However one has to wonder if Israel's chickens will come home to roost at some point. America's power and economy is seemingly on the wane. Doing everything you can to piss off the EU and China seems... unwise. Still, what do I know?

Counter-revolution to the Arab Spring

Obama is delivering a speech about the Arab Spring today and it will most likely be just as full of lies as his 2009 speech in Cairo (worth bearing in mind how when he no doubt mentions in today's speech how awesome democracy how willing to give a speech in a client dictatorship he was two years ago.)

Thus I highly recommend Joseph Massad's editorial about how the Euro-American / Saudi counter-revolution to the Arab Spring is going and what it entails. Read it here and bear in mind how little this resembles the mainstream coverage of the region.

Iraq Reverting to Police State.

In The Shock Doctrine Naomi Klein convincingly shows that the US following the 2003 invasion had no desire for Iraq to become a democracy and it was only by mass protests (that the western media ignored) that the Iraqis got democratic elections. Well Iraqis have been doing mass protests throughout the Arab Spring, albeit for improved conditions and not regime change. Again the western media have studiously ignored it, Iraq is "liberated" and "democratic" so to report on protests would show how inaccurate all their previous reporting has been. Even more depressingly US trained Iraqi security forces are cracking down on the free press within the country.

It would seem that the US is attempting to make Iraq into the puppet dictatorship they always wanted it to be. Though to be fair as Chomsky pointed out the US will endeavour to return all the rebellious countries in the region to client dictatorships.

Chomsky on the Arab Spring...

...and why the west will likely stop at nothing to prevent democracy in the Arab world.

Read about it here. (Feel free to ignore that random editorialising at the start by someone else.)

Bloody Royals.

With Bahrain being one of those countries where the media look the other way on protesters being killed and disappeared I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that Bahrain's crown prince is to be a guest at the Royal Wedding on Friday. I suppose hereditary dictatorships recognise their mutual interests.