Israel likely to attack Iran within months.

I was halfway through writing this when I realised the real reason for Israel doing this, blackmailing China and the EU into opposing the Palestinian State with the threat of massively increased oil prices. I didn't want to delete the other stuff because it is valid but I'm putting this TL:DR here because this is the main point I think. Scroll down to the next bolded bit for my thoughts on this.

Former CIA agent Robert Baer, the inspiration for George Clooney's character in Syriana, has stated there is an extremely strong possibility Israel will attack Iran, probably in September. Given he cites a former head of Mossad that only stepped down in late 2010 I think we can take his warning seriously.

I am also inclined to believe Israel, who are now totally out of control, will attack against American's wishes. Politically and Militarily there is no will for the third middle eastern war.

The probable outcomes for the US are such an attack are devastating. If they do the sensible thing and don't rush to Israel's aid then Obama loses in 2012 for certain. More to the point though we see another example of the American Empire not looking after its' colonies. Sure Russia and the EU took notice that America wouldn't defend Georgia in 2008 but Georgia was small potatoes. Failure to defend Israel, the jewel in the crown means it is open season on the US, China, Russia and others can follow a much more aggressive foreign policy knowing the US simply can't back up its' colonies and client states.

If then they do the publicly popular and necessary thing and defend Israel things are unlikely to go much better. Iran has had years to see how American forces work in Iraq and will have tailored their asymmetric capabilities in response. Also any US navy vessels hanging around Iranian waters probably wont do so well either. But on top of these handicaps the US faces other problems.

The Arab Spring means that guarantees of fly over rights, security of supply lines and so on is vastly weakened. Also the great unpopularity of Israel will likely be a regionally galvanising force, US aligned client rulers across the region could face even greater problems in the event of an Israel and America vs Iran conflict.

Plus you know the massive war fatigue, an economy on life support and likelihood of the need for more troops at home as social conditions deteriorate further at home.

TL:DR bit
Of course as I write this I realise none of that will happen. Because I remember reading at least one article before where Israel threatened China that if they didn't do some such thing then Israel would attack Iran. Now China has no love for Iran, not really but they do need oil and they're heavily dependent on the Middle East for it. The disruption a war between Israel and Iran would cause would create huge problems for China, economically and socially. So China did what Israel wanted.

Now the UN vote on Palestinian Statehood approaches and several big EU countries are looking favourably at the motion. The EU is similarly reliant on Middle Eastern oil so in order to get Israel to reconsider this mindless jingoism they'll have to do whatever Israel wants. I don't know China's position on the issue but if they were looking favourably at it this will likely make them reconsider.

It may be Israel wants other concessions or issues resolved in this extortion operation but regardless of the objective I think this is why their stupidly dangerous plan is suddenly being aired.

However one has to wonder if Israel's chickens will come home to roost at some point. America's power and economy is seemingly on the wane. Doing everything you can to piss off the EU and China seems... unwise. Still, what do I know?

Some excellent opinion pieces.

Al Jazeera has put up a number of excellent opinion pieces today.

Dominic Strauss Kahn
I had some suspicion that DSK being charged with Rape might be politically motivated, though I had assumed it was more likely to be Sarkozy's doing than anyone else's. Now I do not suggest the victim is lying, just that the timing is suspicious, Elliot Spitzer was found to be a user of prostitutes at a very fortuitous time for the GOP but he had actually committed that crime for instance. These two pieces examine this possibility from different angles:

Danny Schechter looks at The Financial world as a hypsexualised environment and examines how intelligence agencies and banks who were not fond of some of the things DSK was saying might have exploited already known about "foibles" to shut down a potential threat.

Pepe Escobar expands on just why DSK could have needed neutralising pointing out that he was trying to make the IMF slightly less of a machine designed to carve up the world for the benefit of a plutocratic elite. As Escobar highlights the endorsement of Joseph Stiglitz could well have lead the financial elite to get rid of him.

This does not of course mean DSK did not commit rape, it just means a lot of very powerful people had reason to have him disgraced. On a more positive note it strongly suggests Noam Chomsky is a really decent guy, hes been a thorn in the right's side for decades and they haven't gotten anything to stick to him.

Obama's Speech
I haven't read or watch the whole speech so I can't really offer much comment but reading around the apparent Israeli chagrin at the 1967 borders proposal (something the UN has always endorsed) one realises that Obama has given Israel all they could really want in that speech. Still no harm in acting angry and hoping for more.

Richard Falk looks specifically at how the speech favours Israel and examines within this context what Palestinians can do.

Joseph Massad looks at how the speech impacts US Imperial policy in the middle east depressingly but not surprisingly he finds it to be a lot of hypocrisy and a continued pursuit of the status quo. The point about Obama giving a speech for the West and specifically for America is an interesting one. Sure the US has always been insular but given Obama's popularity and prominence as a non-white Western leader and the clear political awakening going on in the Middle East to be so tone deaf to the views and opinions of Arabs is unwise. I mean sure he probably assumes he can use violence and financial coercion to force the Arabs back under dictatorships but it never hurts to at least pretend not to be a monster.

Miscellaneous

I probably wont link this unless I do it here so here we go. Jonny sent me this and it's an article in an Indian newspaper about how China has pledged to protect Pakistan from future US incursions. Now you'd think that would be big news, but no, the western media obviously don't want to get too stuck into the regional political situation. America and friends are saving Afghanistan from Muslims or something and no other nation really exists in that scenario.

Tarak Barkawi examines how accusations of "radicalisation" are being used to attack freedom of speech at universities. He also broaches the subject of neo-liberalisation of University management.

Finally there is a review of a book by Francis Fukuyama, he who is mocked over the misinterpretation of his statements regarding the "end of history". It is a critique of the anti-state sentiment of right wingers in both the US and the UK. Such a prominent conservative making such a strong case against neo-liberal ideology is I think noteworthy and worth keeping an eye on. Then again, maybe he'll be arrested for an embarrassing crime within the next couple of weeks.

Very bad news for the US?

I know very little about foreign currency exchange but the way I read this article it really seems like China is starting to move to undermine one of the key pillars of US dominance, the Dollar as the world reserve currency.

Tony Comments:

Actually the general gist of it is correct (Zero Hedge is a great source of information like this). There's not a lot you can do when the biggest lender to you decides you're probably not a good prospect for paying it back, and in this case the writing's been on the wall for a good, long while.

China really doesn't have an incentive to keep financing the US (or the West in general) apart from allowing us to maintain a level of consumerism that buoys their manufacturing. Another reason mentioned in the article is that they need to maintain a stockpile of dollars since they're pegged to it so it makes sense on their end to maintain confidence in it. That being said, no one really believes the west is going to get their houses in order. We've seen small bailouts in the Eurozone but Spain has a potential to really wreck things beyond anything we've seen and no one seriously thinks the US will be fiscally responsible any time soon. For the Chinese, that has historically meant that the dollar is a refuge of last resort but they've known (and said publicly) that given their wealth and manufacturing strength that the yuan should be valued higher which is opposed to the west's wellbeing. They've staunchly refused to devalue (which would be akin to extending our line of credit) and they may continue to hold the line for a while but any chronic debtor knows that this is a dead-end for them since they continue to spend more than they take in.

In the end, this is hardly a surprise move and the effects of it are definitely bad (although I would argue that the predicament we're currently in is just as bad as it inevitably leads to this situation). There isn't really even a way out as the article points out. What will happen as the Chinese reduce debt holdings is that the yuan will be undervalued more and their portfolio grows more robust (less risk + strong capital reserves). As that occurs it will be more and more attractive to move to the yuan as a "reserve currency" as it will be backed by real wealth. While I don't see them moving to float the yuan any time soon (it would destroy the dollar and their primary market), a firm, graduated schedule for higher valuation is almost a certainty which will put great inflationary pressure on the dollar which will drive holdings from dollars to yuan quickly.

China continuing to ramp up soft conquest of Europe.

A good while ago I mentioned how China was taking advantage of Greece's current financial problems to to buy into the EU. Well that was just a contracted that was helpful to Greece's economy at a bad time. Now China is offering to buy up Greek debt especially in key areas of infrastructure that are of vital importance to Chinese export markets. Since Greece solving its' debt problem of vital importance for the whole of the EU this would give Beijing considerable leverage over the EU. The article mentions how this might cause the EU to be less critical of the current value of the Yuan. I agree but almost certainly not for the reasons the author meant. Interestingly this is quite similar to how the IMF and World Bank operate in service of US foreign policy.

As I said before, it is all smiles and kindness now but once they have that leverage China could well try to do some unpleasant things to the EU and more to the point disincline the EU from criticising far more unpleasant things China does to its' citizens and near neighbours.

Chinese colonialisation of Europe begins

China buys into Greece

As we know from western investment in countries with financial problems and social unrest, the nice foreigners ever so kindly putting money into the country often have an agenda that doesn't benefit the investee at all! I sure hope this doesn't happen here, white people are involved.