Israel likely to attack Iran within months.

I was halfway through writing this when I realised the real reason for Israel doing this, blackmailing China and the EU into opposing the Palestinian State with the threat of massively increased oil prices. I didn't want to delete the other stuff because it is valid but I'm putting this TL:DR here because this is the main point I think. Scroll down to the next bolded bit for my thoughts on this.

Former CIA agent Robert Baer, the inspiration for George Clooney's character in Syriana, has stated there is an extremely strong possibility Israel will attack Iran, probably in September. Given he cites a former head of Mossad that only stepped down in late 2010 I think we can take his warning seriously.

I am also inclined to believe Israel, who are now totally out of control, will attack against American's wishes. Politically and Militarily there is no will for the third middle eastern war.

The probable outcomes for the US are such an attack are devastating. If they do the sensible thing and don't rush to Israel's aid then Obama loses in 2012 for certain. More to the point though we see another example of the American Empire not looking after its' colonies. Sure Russia and the EU took notice that America wouldn't defend Georgia in 2008 but Georgia was small potatoes. Failure to defend Israel, the jewel in the crown means it is open season on the US, China, Russia and others can follow a much more aggressive foreign policy knowing the US simply can't back up its' colonies and client states.

If then they do the publicly popular and necessary thing and defend Israel things are unlikely to go much better. Iran has had years to see how American forces work in Iraq and will have tailored their asymmetric capabilities in response. Also any US navy vessels hanging around Iranian waters probably wont do so well either. But on top of these handicaps the US faces other problems.

The Arab Spring means that guarantees of fly over rights, security of supply lines and so on is vastly weakened. Also the great unpopularity of Israel will likely be a regionally galvanising force, US aligned client rulers across the region could face even greater problems in the event of an Israel and America vs Iran conflict.

Plus you know the massive war fatigue, an economy on life support and likelihood of the need for more troops at home as social conditions deteriorate further at home.

TL:DR bit
Of course as I write this I realise none of that will happen. Because I remember reading at least one article before where Israel threatened China that if they didn't do some such thing then Israel would attack Iran. Now China has no love for Iran, not really but they do need oil and they're heavily dependent on the Middle East for it. The disruption a war between Israel and Iran would cause would create huge problems for China, economically and socially. So China did what Israel wanted.

Now the UN vote on Palestinian Statehood approaches and several big EU countries are looking favourably at the motion. The EU is similarly reliant on Middle Eastern oil so in order to get Israel to reconsider this mindless jingoism they'll have to do whatever Israel wants. I don't know China's position on the issue but if they were looking favourably at it this will likely make them reconsider.

It may be Israel wants other concessions or issues resolved in this extortion operation but regardless of the objective I think this is why their stupidly dangerous plan is suddenly being aired.

However one has to wonder if Israel's chickens will come home to roost at some point. America's power and economy is seemingly on the wane. Doing everything you can to piss off the EU and China seems... unwise. Still, what do I know?

Some excellent opinion pieces.

Al Jazeera has put up a number of excellent opinion pieces today.

Dominic Strauss Kahn
I had some suspicion that DSK being charged with Rape might be politically motivated, though I had assumed it was more likely to be Sarkozy's doing than anyone else's. Now I do not suggest the victim is lying, just that the timing is suspicious, Elliot Spitzer was found to be a user of prostitutes at a very fortuitous time for the GOP but he had actually committed that crime for instance. These two pieces examine this possibility from different angles:

Danny Schechter looks at The Financial world as a hypsexualised environment and examines how intelligence agencies and banks who were not fond of some of the things DSK was saying might have exploited already known about "foibles" to shut down a potential threat.

Pepe Escobar expands on just why DSK could have needed neutralising pointing out that he was trying to make the IMF slightly less of a machine designed to carve up the world for the benefit of a plutocratic elite. As Escobar highlights the endorsement of Joseph Stiglitz could well have lead the financial elite to get rid of him.

This does not of course mean DSK did not commit rape, it just means a lot of very powerful people had reason to have him disgraced. On a more positive note it strongly suggests Noam Chomsky is a really decent guy, hes been a thorn in the right's side for decades and they haven't gotten anything to stick to him.

Obama's Speech
I haven't read or watch the whole speech so I can't really offer much comment but reading around the apparent Israeli chagrin at the 1967 borders proposal (something the UN has always endorsed) one realises that Obama has given Israel all they could really want in that speech. Still no harm in acting angry and hoping for more.

Richard Falk looks specifically at how the speech favours Israel and examines within this context what Palestinians can do.

Joseph Massad looks at how the speech impacts US Imperial policy in the middle east depressingly but not surprisingly he finds it to be a lot of hypocrisy and a continued pursuit of the status quo. The point about Obama giving a speech for the West and specifically for America is an interesting one. Sure the US has always been insular but given Obama's popularity and prominence as a non-white Western leader and the clear political awakening going on in the Middle East to be so tone deaf to the views and opinions of Arabs is unwise. I mean sure he probably assumes he can use violence and financial coercion to force the Arabs back under dictatorships but it never hurts to at least pretend not to be a monster.

Miscellaneous

I probably wont link this unless I do it here so here we go. Jonny sent me this and it's an article in an Indian newspaper about how China has pledged to protect Pakistan from future US incursions. Now you'd think that would be big news, but no, the western media obviously don't want to get too stuck into the regional political situation. America and friends are saving Afghanistan from Muslims or something and no other nation really exists in that scenario.

Tarak Barkawi examines how accusations of "radicalisation" are being used to attack freedom of speech at universities. He also broaches the subject of neo-liberalisation of University management.

Finally there is a review of a book by Francis Fukuyama, he who is mocked over the misinterpretation of his statements regarding the "end of history". It is a critique of the anti-state sentiment of right wingers in both the US and the UK. Such a prominent conservative making such a strong case against neo-liberal ideology is I think noteworthy and worth keeping an eye on. Then again, maybe he'll be arrested for an embarrassing crime within the next couple of weeks.

Counter-revolution to the Arab Spring

Obama is delivering a speech about the Arab Spring today and it will most likely be just as full of lies as his 2009 speech in Cairo (worth bearing in mind how when he no doubt mentions in today's speech how awesome democracy how willing to give a speech in a client dictatorship he was two years ago.)

Thus I highly recommend Joseph Massad's editorial about how the Euro-American / Saudi counter-revolution to the Arab Spring is going and what it entails. Read it here and bear in mind how little this resembles the mainstream coverage of the region.

Chomsky on the Arab Spring...

...and why the west will likely stop at nothing to prevent democracy in the Arab world.

Read about it here. (Feel free to ignore that random editorialising at the start by someone else.)

Chomsky talks about the latests Wikileak (and other stuff)

Democracy Now! have spoken with Noam Chomsky on a range of topics related to the cables leaked by Wikileaks. It covers a range of topics, notably the nature of the cables consistently supporting USA biases. If they are legitimate Chomsky points out that while Arab leaders, who are dictators to a man, may see eye to eye with the US in wanting to attack Iran the actual Arab populace not only view Israel and America as far bigger threats a majority, 57% actually view the prospect of a nuclear Iran positively. For some reason Arabs think only Israel having nukes in the region is dangerous.

A lot of other excellent points are made and he draws inferences and connections between various things that are obvious when he says them but very unlikely to occurred to most of us.

Please watch it: Part 1 and Part 2

thanks jonny

As an interesting post script the wikileaks twitter highlighted a cable from the leaks describing Prince Andrew. He seems like an absolute fucking idiot.

A good day to bury bad news and Iranian Scientists.

On 9/11 New Labour spin doctor Jo Moore stated it was a "good day to bury bad news" which while an excellent idea in PR thinking it was very bad PR for her (she lost her job) when it became more widely known and the media and political opponents etc voiced hypocritical anger about it.

Personally I think it was a piece of timeless wisdom and it seems I'm not alone in that. With the ongoing Wikileaks diplomatic cable leak US or Israeli (ah but I repeat myself) intelligence officers have seen fit to try and murder two Iranian nuclear scientists with bombs in two separate incidents, succeeding in one case. The current leak provides excellent cover because as I said the documents that have been released take Iran having a nuclear weapons programme for granted and normalises this unproven scenario in the public mind. In which case murdering a scientist, if anyone notices, is easier to justify as necessary to keep the peace in the region or suchlike.

One should also note that Iran has killed none of the Israeli scientists involved in the wholly illegal Israeli nuclear weapons program but no one cares about that.

Something to bear in mind re: Iran.

One rather suspicious thing about the most recent Wikileaks leak is how much it is getting America's favoured message that Iran will imminently have nuclear weapons (or indeed that there is any evidence they are developing nukes at all.)

An international panel of experts recently stated Iran WILL NOT have nuclear weapons in the near future.

Another awesome Al Jazeera image.

The dejectedness of Abbas, the smugness of Netanyahu and Obama offering the most appropriate salute for Israel and America's actions in the region makes this the perfect image to sum up the hollow farce of America and Israel's favoured delaying tactic, the "peace process".

Taken from the front page image for this story

Al Jazeera's front page photos are constantly awesome.

The rulers of Syria and Saudi not photographing well

Seriously, their photos editor / front page editor gets a lot of subtle, or not so subtle, digs in at very people and events through these photos.