Israel likely to attack Iran within months.

I was halfway through writing this when I realised the real reason for Israel doing this, blackmailing China and the EU into opposing the Palestinian State with the threat of massively increased oil prices. I didn't want to delete the other stuff because it is valid but I'm putting this TL:DR here because this is the main point I think. Scroll down to the next bolded bit for my thoughts on this.

Former CIA agent Robert Baer, the inspiration for George Clooney's character in Syriana, has stated there is an extremely strong possibility Israel will attack Iran, probably in September. Given he cites a former head of Mossad that only stepped down in late 2010 I think we can take his warning seriously.

I am also inclined to believe Israel, who are now totally out of control, will attack against American's wishes. Politically and Militarily there is no will for the third middle eastern war.

The probable outcomes for the US are such an attack are devastating. If they do the sensible thing and don't rush to Israel's aid then Obama loses in 2012 for certain. More to the point though we see another example of the American Empire not looking after its' colonies. Sure Russia and the EU took notice that America wouldn't defend Georgia in 2008 but Georgia was small potatoes. Failure to defend Israel, the jewel in the crown means it is open season on the US, China, Russia and others can follow a much more aggressive foreign policy knowing the US simply can't back up its' colonies and client states.

If then they do the publicly popular and necessary thing and defend Israel things are unlikely to go much better. Iran has had years to see how American forces work in Iraq and will have tailored their asymmetric capabilities in response. Also any US navy vessels hanging around Iranian waters probably wont do so well either. But on top of these handicaps the US faces other problems.

The Arab Spring means that guarantees of fly over rights, security of supply lines and so on is vastly weakened. Also the great unpopularity of Israel will likely be a regionally galvanising force, US aligned client rulers across the region could face even greater problems in the event of an Israel and America vs Iran conflict.

Plus you know the massive war fatigue, an economy on life support and likelihood of the need for more troops at home as social conditions deteriorate further at home.

TL:DR bit
Of course as I write this I realise none of that will happen. Because I remember reading at least one article before where Israel threatened China that if they didn't do some such thing then Israel would attack Iran. Now China has no love for Iran, not really but they do need oil and they're heavily dependent on the Middle East for it. The disruption a war between Israel and Iran would cause would create huge problems for China, economically and socially. So China did what Israel wanted.

Now the UN vote on Palestinian Statehood approaches and several big EU countries are looking favourably at the motion. The EU is similarly reliant on Middle Eastern oil so in order to get Israel to reconsider this mindless jingoism they'll have to do whatever Israel wants. I don't know China's position on the issue but if they were looking favourably at it this will likely make them reconsider.

It may be Israel wants other concessions or issues resolved in this extortion operation but regardless of the objective I think this is why their stupidly dangerous plan is suddenly being aired.

However one has to wonder if Israel's chickens will come home to roost at some point. America's power and economy is seemingly on the wane. Doing everything you can to piss off the EU and China seems... unwise. Still, what do I know?

I love the Onion.

Sure its not been nearly as good since it went on TV, for one thing the blonde lady just isn't as good as many of the actors she turfed out but still, the razor sharp observations persist:

Vindication for Mr Greenwald.

Hot on the heels of Glenn Greenwald's article that highlighted the fact the Democratic party doesn't have a progressive agenda the Texas Democratic party is strongly considering having the General who oversaw Abu Ghraib run for an open Senate seat.

Royal Navy accidentally releases nuclear secrets.

You know I almost feel bad for Chinese and Russian intelligence agencies. They probably have elaborate plans set up to steal sensitive information and then America's vassal in the North Sea just gives away all sorts of sensitive info for free.

Next time there's a budget squeeze its going to be that much harder from them to justify their budgets. There's no reward for competence in this life.

"Look at us, look at what they make you give."

Alternative title: Too much is never enough.

So serving in imperialist wars lost you limbs? Stop being such a big baby and get back to it, the super rich elite need more profits! That is to say "the Pentagon says 41 American amputee veterans are now serving in combat zones worldwide." So pretty soon Republicans are going to getting very angry about anyone claiming disability benefits, if these brave men and women can do their part in spite of their injuries why should we give any money to the free loaders eh?

Coming soon, combat wheelchairs that allow IED victims to return to convoy duty.

DO NOT CUT FUNDING TO THE KILLFORCE, YOU WILL REGRET THIS!

little sim city joke for y'all there

British MPs are warning that if funding is cut to the British Military (which is higher than Russia's) then bad things will happen its harder to be clearer than that since it just seems to be general scaremonger on behalf of military interests rather than anything specific. Threats to Britain are mentioned but what on earth threatens Britain these days? We have nukes and even if we don't replace Trident we'll still have them and be able to nuke people in one way or another. Even so no one capable of invading Britain has any real interest in doing so. Occupying Afghanistan seems to cause Islamic terror attacks rather than preventing them and anyway all the expensive helicopters and tanks etc seem pretty unsuited to fighting asymmetrical warfare which in an age of nukes is the only kind of war that seems to take place.

But you kinda give up trying to understand what these "threats" are when you read:

Mr Arbuthnot told Radio 4's Today programme: "We are worried that this process appears to be money-driven rather than driven by the threats to our country which need to be worked out and assessed in order to work out whether, and the extent to which, we can defend against them.

A review of the British armed forces in a long term and ongoing financial crisis is focusing on money?? MY STARS. If we don't give the arms industry a blank cheque we wont win The Great Game. To be serious that this kind of blank cheque, we need even more money to pretend we're still a world power and brutally enforce corporate interests thinking can be printed in a report about a military spending review without it being questioned is pretty depressing.

Its a good thing submarines look like dildos...

...because Caroline Wyatt sure as hell wants to get intimate with HMS Astute. I really hope for Ms Wyatt that all she is doing is printing verbatim a Royal Navy press release because otherwise she really is getting overly enthusiastic about £3.9bn a killing machine that has no real role or purpose in the modern world other than to maintain the delusion Britain still matters on the world stage. It is great to know that while other government departments face cuts of up to 25% the Ministry of Defence can still buy white elephant war toys.

How the military deals with soldiers who have a conscience.

An article detailing the various reprisals military people face if they try and alert the media and the wider world to all kinds of absuses and the hollow lie that is the assertion they should've dealt with it through proper channels, the proper channels simply don't care. Rather than the phony silliness that all Troops are heroes, it is, as the article states, these people who risk (and often lose) everything to get the truth out that are the real heroes

British Army will maybe possibly investigate deaths of 109 Iraqis in their custody

So 109 people died while in the custody of the British army, some of them obviously beaten to death or whatever but the Ministry of Defence doesn't think we need a public inquiry or anything and anyway its unpatriotic to question the actions of "our boys". Anyway the Iraqis totally ungrateful for the opportunities we gave them for urban regeneration, massive building projects and paediatric research are now launching a legal challenge in the UK to try and force a public enquiry I don't know why they're bothering though, it'll just turn out they committed suicide anyway.